arXiv
Open Access
2025
Who has the best probabilities? Luck versus skill in prediction tournaments
Niall MacKay
Abstrak
An informal and elementary introduction to probability scoring and forecast verification and improvement, slightly extended from Significance 22:3(2025)16, which might be useful for less mathematical readers as a prologue to the classic review by Gneiting and Raftery [Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation, Journal of the American Statistical Association 102 (2007): 359].
Topik & Kata Kunci
Penulis (1)
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Niall MacKay
Akses Cepat
Informasi Jurnal
- Tahun Terbit
- 2025
- Bahasa
- en
- Sumber Database
- arXiv
- Akses
- Open Access ✓