Soft Computing Approaches for Predicting Shade-Seeking Behaviour in Dairy Cattle under Heat Stress: A Comparative Study of Random Forests and Neural Networks

Heat stress is one of the main welfare and productivity problems faced by dairy cattle in Mediterranean climates. In this study, we approach the prediction of the daily shade-seeking count as a non-linear multivariate regression problem and evaluate two soft computing algorithms -- Random Forests and Neural Networks -- trained on high-resolution behavioral and micro-climatic data collected in a commercial farm in Titaguas (Valencia, Spain) during the 2023 summer season. The raw dataset (6907 daytime observations, 5-10 min resolution) includes the number of cows in the shade, ambient temperature and relative humidity. From these we derive three features: current Temperature--Humidity Index (THI), accumulated daytime THI, and mean night-time THI. To evaluate the models' performance a 5-fold cross-validation is also used. Results show that both soft computing models outperform a single Decision Tree baseline. The best Neural Network (3 hidden layers, 16 neurons each, learning rate = 10e-3) reaches an average RMSE of 14.78, while a Random Forest (10 trees, depth = 5) achieves 14.97 and offers best interpretability. Daily error distributions reveal a median RMSE of 13.84 and confirm that predictions deviate less than one hour from observed shade-seeking peaks. These results demonstrate the suitability of soft computing, data-driven approaches embedded in an applied-mathematical feature framework for modeling noisy biological phenomena, demonstrating their value as low-cost, real-time decision-support tools for precision livestock farming under heat-stress conditions.