Simpson's Paradox and Lagging Progress in Completion Trends of Underrepresented Students in Computer Science

It is imperative for the Computer Science (CS) community to ensure active participation and success of students from diverse backgrounds. This work compares CS to other areas of study with respect to success of students from three underrepresented groups: Women, Black and Hispanic or Latino. Using a data-driven approach, we show that trends of success over the years for underrepresented groups in CS are lagging behind other disciplines. Completion of CS programs by Black students in particular shows an alarming regression in the years 2011 through 2019. This national level decline is most concentrated in the Southeast of the United States and seems to be driven mostly by a small number of institutes that produce a large number of graduates. We strongly believe that more data-driven studies in this area are necessary to make progress towards a more equitable and inclusive CS community. Without an understanding of underlying dynamics, policy makers and practitioners will be unable to make informed decisions about how and where to allocate resources to address the problem.