arXiv Open Access 2022

The link between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and ENSO in seasonal forecasts

Robert Doane-Solomon Daniel Befort Joanne Camp Kevin Hodges Antje Weisheimer

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Abstrak

This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. While the models generally capture the basin-wide observed link, its magnitude is overestimated in all forecast models compared to reanalysis. Furthermore, the ENSO - TC relationship in the Caribbean is poorly simulated. It is shown that incorrect forecasting of wind shear appears to affect the representation of the teleconnection in some models, however it is not a completely sufficient explanation for the overestimation of the link.

Topik & Kata Kunci

physics.ao-ph

Penulis (5)

Robert Doane-Solomon

Daniel Befort

Joanne Camp

Kevin Hodges

Antje Weisheimer

Format Sitasi

APA MLA BibTeX

Doane-Solomon, R., Befort, D., Camp, J., Hodges, K., Weisheimer, A. (2022). The link between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and ENSO in seasonal forecasts. https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.11422

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Informasi Jurnal

Tahun Terbit: 2022
Bahasa: en
Sumber Database: arXiv
Akses: Open Access ✓