arXiv Open Access 2022

Incorporating testing volume into estimation of effective reproduction number dynamics

Isaac H. Goldstein Jon Wakefield Volodymyr M. Minin

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Abstrak

Branching process inspired models are widely used to estimate the effective reproduction number -- a useful summary statistic describing an infectious disease outbreak -- using counts of new cases. Case data is a real-time indicator of changes in the reproduction number, but is challenging to work with because cases fluctuate due to factors unrelated to the number of new infections. We develop a new model that incorporates the number of diagnostic tests as a surveillance model covariate. Using simulated data and data from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in California, we demonstrate that incorporating tests leads to improved performance over the state-of-the-art.

Topik & Kata Kunci

stat.ME q-bio.PE

Penulis (3)

Isaac H. Goldstein

Jon Wakefield

Volodymyr M. Minin

Format Sitasi

APA MLA BibTeX

Goldstein, I.H., Wakefield, J., Minin, V.M. (2022). Incorporating testing volume into estimation of effective reproduction number dynamics. https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.04418

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Informasi Jurnal

Tahun Terbit: 2022
Bahasa: en
Sumber Database: arXiv
Akses: Open Access ✓