arXiv Open Access 2022

Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

Sergio Correia Stephan Luck Emil Verner

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Abstrak

We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and stringent NPIs reduced peak mortality by 50% and cumulative excess mortality by 24% to 34%. However, while the pandemic itself was associated with short-run economic disruptions, we find that these disruptions were similar across cities with strict and lenient NPIs. NPIs also did not worsen medium-run economic outcomes. Our findings indicate that NPIs can reduce disease transmission without further depressing economic activity, a finding also reflected in discussions in contemporary newspapers.

Topik & Kata Kunci

econ.GN

Penulis (3)

Sergio Correia

Stephan Luck

Emil Verner

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APA MLA BibTeX

Correia, S., Luck, S., Verner, E. (2022). Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu. https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.11636

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Informasi Jurnal

Tahun Terbit: 2022
Bahasa: en
Sumber Database: arXiv
Akses: Open Access ✓