Modelling the deceleration of COVID-19 spreading
Abstrak
By characterising the time evolution of COVID-19 in term of its "velocity" (log of the new cases per day) and its rate of variation, or "acceleration", we show that in many countries there has been a deceleration even before lockdowns were issued. This feature, possibly due to the increase of social awareness, can be rationalised by a susceptible-hidden-infected-recovered (SHIR) model introduced by Barnes, in which a hidden (isolated from the virus) compartment $H$ is gradually populated by susceptible people, thus reducing the effectiveness of the virus spreading. By introducing a partial hiding mechanism, for instance due to the impossibility for a fraction of the population to enter the hidden state, we obtain a model that, although still sufficiently simple, faithfully reproduces the different deceleration trends observed in several major countries.
Topik & Kata Kunci
Penulis (5)
Giacomo Barzon
Karan Kabbur Hanumanthappa Manjunatha
Wolfgang Rugel
Enzo Orlandini
Marco Baiesi
Akses Cepat
- Tahun Terbit
- 2020
- Bahasa
- en
- Sumber Database
- arXiv
- Akses
- Open Access ✓